News
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- NYT (Jul 8)
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- The New York Times (Apr 14)
- The Associated Press (Apr 3)
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- Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade lost its fourth M1A1 Abrams tank near Berdychi, Donetsk Oblast [MilitaryLand.net]
- Russian Grounds Forces are claiming to have captured a Leopard 2A6 which was abandoned recently by Ukrainian Forces near the frontlines in the East [OSINTdefender]
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- First US-supplied M1A1 Abrams MBT in Ukrainian service seen damaged/destroyed. Blowout panels can be seen deployed [OSINTtechnical]
- A very bad day for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, 3 different pieces of modern Western military equipment appear to have suffered losses today or recently due to combat action from the Russian Military [OSINTdefender]
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- Institute for the Study of War
- Kyiv Post
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It's not easy to pinpoint precisely when this became the case. Their blunting of Ukraine's much-hyped counteroffensive last year put an end to any hope of Ukraine winning a quick victory, but it wasn't until fairly recently that Russia demonstrated real sustained momentum on the battlefield. The news ticker on the top-left of this page contains several examples.
- Let's not forget this is a tragedyThis was what we'd argue was an avoidable war, one we didn't want to happen and that serves as a major distraction from the issues we face, but the plight of Ukraine being gobbled up through a brutal invasion has always been sympathetic
- A concern for us: In the event of a rout, there could be pressure for the West to intervene directly Let's not get dragged into this meatgrinder of a war
Ukraine's counteroffensive
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- The Guardian (Aug 28)
- The Guardian (Sep 2)
- The Wall Street Journal (Sep 1)
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It seems to be two things above all: long-range heli-fired missiles, a weapon not used before in this capacity — not widely at least — and Russia's extensive minefields and other fortifications. The anti-armor missiles can be fired outside the range of air defenses, making them hard to deal with. [Insider, Forbes] Russia's extensive defenses were known about before. [BBC] These would be challenging obstacles for any army to overcome and Ukraine completely lacks the air superiority US doctrine relies on.
- As of late Oct., it can surely be said that the offensive has fallen far short of expectations, but Ukraine did manage some small, not insignificant gains in a key part of the front line
- Russia's pivot from defense to its own offensive around Avdiika taken as further proof that the counteroffensive is officially over
- Media coverage has been gloomy in response
- How Russia managed to do it
- It's not all bad news for Ukraine though, newly-delivered ATACMS destroy dozens of helicopters critical to Russia's blunting of the offensive
The Wagner rebellionChef Prigo's 'march of justice'
- They threatened Moscow, but it ended in a deal: Prigozhin in Belarus and everything forgiven
- Wagner forces shot down several Russian aircraft including several helicopters and a valuable airborne command centerDocumenting the losses and visual evidence
- Wagner forces advanced largely unopposed but there were exceptions
The armor may be primitive but there's evidence it's effective against FPV drones (Apr 25)
Interesting videos from the warThis has been a nightmarish war for those fighting it but we've gotten plenty of great combat footage out of it at least — for those who are in to such a thing.
- Lucky Russian serviceman dodges an FPV drone attacking his position
- Russia attacks Kharkiv TV tower
- Crashed Russian Tu-22M3 bomber falling from the sky in a flatspin
- Ukrainians repel large Russian armored assault around Avdiivka
- First footage of a Ukrainian Abrams in combat
- Footage of a disastrous Russian mechanized assault
- Russian soldier dives under FPV drone, survives attack
- US-supplied Bradleys successfully disable a Russian T-90 tank in 10min duel
Casualties
An important question is just how many people have died or been injured, on both sides. We have few solid answers but there are estimates.
• A recent credible analysis (Feb. of this year) placed the total Russian dead as 75,000, excluding deaths from the breakaway LPR and DPR republics before they were annexed, and 42,000 for Ukraine.
• A US estimate from around the same time pegged Russia's dead and wounded at 315,000.
As of writing this, in May of this year, the counts are likely significantly higher, given the high casualty rate of the war.
Two pieces from the start of and just before the war where this site said much of what needs to be said:
Incinerated buses and other widespread rioting damage in France is what I'd see as a serious security problem. The foreign policy mainstream has us fighting for ‘democracy’ around the globe. This is the sort of thing that defines our calculus on the war.
