On the threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine
Tensions are flaring again. This time there's a massive Russian military buildup around Ukraine, with warnings of an imminent invasion. Similar to how I noted in a previous piece after Iran retaliated to the US assassination of Revolutionary Guard leader Qasem Soleimani with a ballistic missile attack on a US base in Iraq, the facts on the ground require us to rethink some of the default dissident positions you see on these things. In that case it was that things had gone surprisingly well for the Trump administration, with no planned deployment of US forces, undermining typical anti-war arguments. In this case, Russia's openly threatening actions do the same.
It should be said upfront though that we really don't need any of this. This conflict is not at all in our interests. That's usually the case, but it's only gotten more and more true as our problems have multiplied at home and the forces managing and driving these conflicts on our side increasingly reveal themselves to be determined enemies of ours as well (e.g. the increasingly "woke" military, the liberal-progressive agenda of the US-led alliance, etc.). Explaining all the ways this stuff runs counter to our interests is better left to another piece. For now we'll just say that it goes well beyond it being a major distraction from doing anything about the problems we face, it's surrendering the agenda to the worst people in politics. At a time when we need people to stand against the corrupted regime, getting on board with these causes sends the worst possible message.
That said, it's important to not fall into the trap of just parroting the left's fundamentally anti-American worldview. A recent Ben & Jerry's tweet on the issue, where the notoriously outspoken ice cream maker voiced concern over the deployment of US forces to Eastern Europe, was attacked for ignoring Russia's responsibility for the tensions with their major military buildup. It's a sign of the times that this sentiment, being so rarely expressed in mainstream political discourse, is taken as deeply controversial (and from this company of all things), but that's another issue. What matters here is that we avoid the same oversight.
Certainly there are other countries and armed groups in the world that are genuinely ill-disposed towards others, and that have the capability to do harm. There's no reason to assume that the US is the root of all geopolitical problems, like the hard/real left has always believed. Russia has clear revanchist goals, arising in Putin's case at least out of bitterness over the manner in which the Soviet Union broke up. Their advocacy of the interests of Russian-speaking people in other countries may make sense from their perspective but there's no reason for us to sympathize with it all. Their problems have nothing to do with us as well and their aggressive actions only embolden our worst enemies. They need to be pressured to stop too. It doesn't help things either that there are genuine echoes of Sudetenland Germans in the issue, a gift to our elites who love to abuse WWII references.
But the United States bears significant responsibility for this state of affairs too. Direct and intimate US involvement in the 2013–2014 Maidan protests (e.g. Victoria Nuland's "Fuck the EU") was a major provocation, and Russia absolutely has a legitimate issue with the expansion of NATO, a Cold War-era military alliance that should have disbanded at its end, towards its border. No one should be so naïve as to assume that the US is some completely noble power coming to the aid of the victims of bullies. The conflict is at least in part a struggle for influence/hegemony over a particular region, much like wars have always been defined by those things through history.
All of these things should be considered by people in our parts. We need to find a peaceful resolution to this conflict as quickly as possible, do what's necessary to make sure our elites don't create problems and get us involved in foreign entanglements again, and get back to fighting the things we need to fight.
